- On 1st November Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud regained Israeli political elections, the 5th in 3 years.
- He still has to find the right chemistry the electoral system reserves for leading parties.
- This time, after several failures, the newly elected government could have an unusual burning key ally.
“Here we go again”, that’s what Israelis would have said on 20th June, as the parliament was dissolved after a majority bill. That’s the 5th election since April 2019, which never saw an absolute winner, leading to large coalitions which would have never worked.
On 1st November 70% of the 7 million inhabitants went to polls: Results show the consistent sympathy Israelis have towards the historical leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party. He’s an evergreen on the political stage, Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, winning 5 straight elections in 2009, 2013, 2015, and 2 times in 2019. His governments are known to be conservative and nation-addicted, as he grew up in Ronald Reagan’s USA, while Israel was still under a left-leaning rule. As a diehard Zionist, he defends strongly the existence of the State of Israel against Hamas and other foreign foes, but he also took part in the Oslo Peace Accords and in 2009 saw positively a creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state, trying to go ahead of national interest. His party, the Likud (“consolidation”), exists since 1973, but totally reflects his leader’s view and it has solid friendships with Conservative parties all around the world. One of the first Giorgia Meloni’s callers after her nominee was the same Netanyahu.
Moreover, his international experience allowed him to settle long-time friendships. During Donald Trump’s office, Netanyahu was his most loyal ally, who still thanks the 45th President for the Abraham Accords, which signed the diplomatic overture of Bahrain and UAE to Israel. Other leaders such as Jair Bolsonaro, Narendra Modi, and the same Vladimir Putin visited the Holy Land with the hat in hand. “Bibi” (military nickname for Benjamin) condemned the Russian aggression, but never denied his links to Putin and exhorted the leader to stop the military intervention. Joe Biden has just congratulated him, but actual US-Israel diplomatic ties are unknown, as the President’s immobilism isn’t liked by the ultranationalist Zionists who are going to take the power. The former Democrat President Barack Obama ruled at the same time Netanyahu was the undiscussed leader in Tel Aviv and even if they tried to maintain huge relationships, they often have different views on Middle Eastern issues and the same Netanyahu never accepted Obama’s overture to Iran (the most dangerous enemy of Israel) and the nuclear deal. However, that’s a total blank point that’s going to be filled in the next months.
Isreal’s Channel 11 exit polls per parliament seats. The network divides the parties in 3 coalitions, Netanyahu’s one, Yari Lapid’s (Yesh Atid) and the arab minority.
International visibility is a strong tool for the former Prime Minister, but he still has to overcome the pure proportional system, which doesn’t prize the most voted party and gives a lot of power to non-winning parties, whose strategies can be decisive for the creation of the government. That’s why Israel held 5 elections since 2019: in all these elections Likud was the most voted party, but other major parties such as liberal White and Blu and Yesh Atid took a lot of votes and constricted him to choose between XXL-coalition and a hard opposition. In 2021 the same Likud didn’t become the majority and the new government hosted 8 different parties from the right-wing New Right of PM Naftali Bennet to the Laburist Party of Israel, including for the first time the United Arab List, the party of the Muslim Arab minority of Israel.
Ben Gvir during a rally (photo by Calev Ben Dor)
However, this time Bibi seems to have the right jolly: after Likud and Yesh Atid, the most-voted party was the coalition of Religious Zionism, ruled by Ben Gvir and his Otzma Yehudit. Ben Gvir is the pupil of Meir Kahane, an orthodox rabbi who called for an ultranationalist clerical Israel, for the expulsion of all Arabs and Muslims from Israel, and the refusal of every accord with Palestine. In 1995 Ben Gvir appeared in a video driving a Cadillac and saying, showing the logo of the car: “How we reached this, we will reach him”. It was a clear reference to the Laburist PM Rabin, the one who opened talks with Arafat and the Palestinians. A few weeks later Rabin was killed by a Zionist fundamentalist. Washington is not convinced of him, as it could enflame the Middle East like a molotov bottle, the same he wants to ban in Israel, punishing the possession with death. However, Netanyahu seems interested to start a dialogue, giving him a department and hoping to receive support against the judiciary procedures against the former President, charged with corruption.
Negotiations go on, but the aura of Netanyahu and the gates of power seem to convince Ben Gvir to accept the accord and define a clear move toward right in Israel. And who knows if the friend of America Donald Trump will take notes on how to overcome judiciary scandals and regain power after all the political scene tried to stop him, like Bibi Netanyahu is on the verge to do.
Front image from Amir Levy/Getty Images
https://www.dw.com/en/benjamin-netanyahu-long-time-premiers-comeback-in-israel/a-63628916
https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/bennett-lapid-duo-short-lived-union
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/1/far-right-ben-gvir-emerge-as-key-player-in-israel-election
The Bear Street Journal. 
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